Jul 26, 2017

Update

The indexes moved higher and all reached their expected targets, the last one was DJ today.... all indexes are showing finished patterns the risk to be long at the moment is too high for me. We will know soon if FOMC will be a trigger for a move lower or not.

DJ - the pattern which I have shown this weekend looks finished.

SP500 - 5 waves finished from 6-th of July and even on 10-min chart 5 waves finished from 21-th of July. Too many finished patterns, too many divergences, too high risk for me.

21 comments:

  1. Thanks. For the gold miner and PM, it seems PM is not that bullish while gold miner is more bearish than PM. Any upside target? Thanks again for your insight.

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    1. We made 61,8% retracement and are in perfect spot for right shoulder on gold around 1260.
      GDX:GLD ratio is at crucial resistance. If we are to see that 4Q low Krasi is talking about we absolutely need to turn RIGHT NOW

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    2. Gold looks strong miners weak only sideway move for the last 3 months.
      GDXJ - 35-36 area, gold pullback now and higher after that... 1300.

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    3. Yes 1260 was my target too, but the move higher looks like impulse(should reverse any moment) which means another leg higher after a pullback. USDJPY does not show signs for a bottom so it is more likely that PM will move higher in August(which was the plan initially).
      I am interested in miners to catch the next run up. They are retracing time 3 months sideway move which is the expected behavior. I do not know if gold will make lower low in Q4, but miners follow the plan so far and I am waiting patiently on the sideline.
      Gold looks strong, but the USD is crashing and gold is moving nowhere... this is not so bullish sign.

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    4. Are you suggesting triple top in gold? 1300 is too high in my opinion - correction would be over then.
      Both gold and oil are moving in beautiful arc and should fail now. Otherwise- they are gone.

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    5. I have no idea what the pattern is. Intermediate term I think we will see more to the upside. If the correction from 2016 is over or not? I do not think it is over, but I do not have convincing bearish pattern, this is just an opinion.
      The simple solution for those who trade gold is - we have impulse from the last low if we see corrective pullback to around 1230(MA200) it is a buy and then we see what happens.
      Practical approach as a trader:)

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  2. Thank you for the charts

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  3. Very nice to see the top finally. Any potential downward pattern/path/target? First hit 2450? Thanks. Recently SPX and GDXJ looks like going the same direction, is it possible that for the short term, GDXJ should also go down?

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    1. Two targets if this is the correction which I expect - 2330-2350 and 2280-2300.
      Yes, it is possible GDXJ to move lower short term more likely because Gold/Silver finished 5 waves higher and it is time for a pullback less likely because of SP500.

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    2. Thanks. By Gold 5 waves you mean the up move from July 10 to July 26? Then we should expect a pullback to 1230?

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    3. Yes from the last low in July.... pullback somewhere between the MA50 and M200.

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  4. I find it a bit strange that there is so much talk about gold on this site. Perhaps it's just a few people posting often. It seems like the general market SPY, QQQ, DOW are so much more important in terms of affecting major sums of money.

    I can't figure out why ATT and Verizon did so well today. They are blue chip high yield stocks but they never move that sharply in a day.

    But the most overlooked indicator has to be the Dow Transports that lost almost 300 points today. This sets up some sort of Dow theory non-confirmation in the near future. But most of all, it puts a lid on things for awhile. (unless I'm wrong!)

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    1. Yes, the PM/miners sector is very small compared to the general market. I was wondering too until I saw somewhere that GDXJ/JNUG are one of the most heavily traded ETFs this year. And this talk everywhere how gold will go to the moon... when in fact it is in a secular bear market until 2030.

      Really crazy moves:) and I was wondering why DJ is the only index which is higher. Transportation, financial, tech sector all do not look good it is difficult to see rally higher at this point. Something short term is possible, but nothing more than 2 weeks.

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  5. Your Hurst cycle sounds very interesting. How would you rate Hurst cycle as a tool in timing the market? Where can I get information on this subject? thanks.

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    1. For cycles this is the place - http://forum.hurstcycles.com/
      If you are ready to spend some money the software is Sentient trader - great tool but costs money.
      Some videos from the guy who wrote the software https://www.youtube.com/user/SentientTraderVideo/videos

      Cycles are great tool, but like every tool they have weaknesses - sometimes the cycle is longer some time it is shorter it is not fix. With the time and more experience you get used to it and learn to read them better. Overall they are very useful because they give you a time frame and help you identify important tops/bottoms.
      I use only basics - when the next 20 week cycle should come and when to expect important top/bottom 4/8/16 year cycles.
      The real cycles guys(see the forum and the videos above) have complete trading system around cycles using FLD cross/support etc.
      Dig deeper and see if you like it:)

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  6. Hi Krasi,

    Thank you for your wonderful work!

    What is you view on XBI? Do you believe that it has further move lower? I ask because, looks as if there is one more wave lower left on the current short term to complete 3 waves. Afterwards, do you believe move higher or continuation of the drop? Would the current wave be counted as wave 1 of the big down turn?

    Thanks again

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    1. Short term one more leg lower. It will show us if something bigger to the downside has begun or to expect one final higher high(if it finds support at MA50).
      For the major indexes this is not the big turn, XBI has corrective pattern so yes this could be the big turn. Again wait for the bigger correction and see if it is an impulse, how deep it is etc. to see confirmation.
      Trading/forecasts several steps ahead of the market usually do not work so well:) especially in bull market predicting tops. The best way is step by step and to see if the market confirms or not the forecast.

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  7. I really appreciate your insights. Its always great to hear your reasoning.

    Kali

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  8. Krasi, you should definitely think about writing a paid weekly newsletter. I would definitely pay some money to subscribe; your analysis looks incredibly valuable.

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    1. I do not know... I always wanted the information to be free for all.
      Maybe some day I will put a donation button:)

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